The Remapening of Earth

[Uso]

Ok, it is time to officially start this project since earth is showing up more often now.

Step one is figuring out what the earth looks like in 2322. There are a lot of estimates out there.

Anticipating Future Sea Levels

While scientists have grown more confident about projections of sea level rise for the next few decades, many competing factors make it hard to see far into the coastal future.

earthobservatory.nasa.gov

Sea level rise - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

A Terrifying Sea-Level Prediction Now Looks Far Less Likely

But experts warn that our overall picture of sea-level rise looks far scarier today than it did even five years ago.

www.theatlantic.com

https://www.theguardian.com/environ...-change-happening-now-stats-graphs-maps-cop26 <-- putting this one here mostly to reference later when it is time to talk about where nations are.

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In our history scenario, the climate disaster and biodiversity collapse are supposed to be the slow inciting incidents that lead to everything else. I think that also means we're looking at a fairly high emissions scenario and by 2300 we might have something like a 2-3m increase in sea levels even with fusion power, archologies, and pushing population into space. Just eyeballing things from some of the various map tools out there it looks like damage is hard to see from space.

Flood Map: Elevation Map, Sea Level Rise Map

Flood Map shows the map of the area which could get flooded if the water level rises to a particular elevation. Sea level rise map. Bathymetric map, ocean depth. Effect of Global Warming and Climate Change.

www.floodmap.net

But if you zoom in, coastal areas are devistated

Sea Level Rise Viewer

View potential impacts of sea level rise along the coast

coast.noaa.gov

 

[Uso]

And here is some heat-wave stuff





Red seems to be where the models are in agreement that you're going to see heatwave like events 10x more likely at +5c than what we experience now. That's easily 125F / 53c along the gulf coast

 

[Uso]

That gives us something like this (RIP New Zealand)

 

[Uso]

Next up is a drought / flood overlay. This might mitigate or worsen some problems in some areas, though this is kinda looking good for the Soyuz and GDW

 

[Uso]

Updated map with Drought and Flooding areas

 

[Uso]

wildfires literally everywhere



Models have some very wild disagreement, but we've got a wide area of increased crop failure. This is areas dropping below the 2.5 percentile, which is the bottom 2.5% That means basically no crops

 

[Ray of Meep]

Going through these one continent at a time: North America: Southern United States and Mexico seems all sorts of fucked. Northern California, New England, Canada seems they'll end up okay. Illinois, Indiana will remain as breadbasket states.

 

[Uso]

American Union stuff:

Based on US security agreements here:



Subtract NATO.

Add Mexico (since Mexico is going to be hit super hard and I imagine they'll be getting strong-armed into joining out of lack of other options.

I think the UK is going to try and play both sides between the AU and GDW, and end up worse off for it... and will probably be considered a minor territory of both groups.

Here is a first pass:

 

[Ray of Meep]

Change the purple color to something else. Those territories are hard to distinguish from the ocean. Also, doesn't wikipedia have a proper image that we can fill in the blank with? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:World_Map_Blank_-_with_blue_sea.svg

 

[Uso]

Here is the old map btw. Did we write down why we decided what we decided? Think we made a quick gut-reaction for things.

I also have everything on different layers so its super easy to replace or just leave transparent:

 

[Uso]

Some other ways to split this up

 

[Ray of Meep]

I want to say that CANZUK in general is playing both the CW and the AU. Though, I question the lifespan of the British monarchy, which really is the only thing keeping Canada associated with the UK, on paper. There are cultural similarities, but Canada has plenty of that with the US.

 

[Ray of Meep]

Looking at the HFR, we need to first look at...

Mainland China. No matter where one looks on the map, eastern China is all sorts of fucked, between heavy rains, crop failure, wildfires, and drought. The environmental troubles will have likely drove China deeper into authoritarianism and even heavier, cyberpunk-esque urbanization, as civilians hide in extensively, environmentally controlled cities. The strain on resources will have resulted in annexation of its neighbors. 24th century China will still see the same problems, but at this point environmental engineering technologies will have matured, and its shift in ideology will make it more receptive to financial aid. Not quite the dystopia as it was in the 21st and 22nd century, but the road to recovery is arduous.

Taiwan. Taiwan seems like it'll fare alright, despite its islandic nature, which further reinforces the idea that China would annex it. In the 24th century the island will be a second heart of sorts to the historical Beijing, the New York to the Washington DC, as its position close the equator and existing space infrastructure makes it prime for a space age boom.

North Korea. Similar to Taiwan, North Korea looks less affected by climate change. Combined with existing natural resources and ideological similarities, China will have annexed it early on. In the 24th century it remains a key region of resource exploitation and serves as a land route between the AU SoI and the HFR SoI. In a more idealistic scenario, the demilitarized zone between NK and SK would be truly be just that, and NK prospers with economic and political reform.

Tibetan Plateau. Despite economic and political reforms, the Tibetan Plateau will remain militarized and contested with India. Its importance as the water source for all of mainland China is amplified further by the environmental stresses. Resources from space don't nullify the geographical importance of the region.

Right now, the above regions form the core the the URC, HFR's holdings on Earth. There's its relationships with its neighbors I want to talk a bit about.

Southeast Asian Nations. In our timeline, the CCP annexed many of the SEA nations, including Vietnam, which is why there exists a large Vietnamese population elsewhere in the HFR. With reform of the HFR as a whole, the URC would've retracted its occupation of these nations, partially due to shifting ideology, but practically due to lacking the manpower to enforce rule militarily. Still, these nations will suffer the worst of climate change and rely on both the HFR and the AU for aid.

 

[Ray of Meep]

Here's a map of modern, mainland China. Here, I see two regions that could break away from it after the fall of the CCP: 1), Xinjiang, or Uygur, and 2), Xizang, or Tibet. My understanding of Xinjiang is that it's a heavily Muslim populated region that serves as a buffer between the cultural heart of China and its western neighbors. Kilometers and kilometers of desert as geographical protection. I already discussed the importance of Tibet, and I standby my initial statement that even a reformed, softer URC wouldn't given up the region and allow independence, which creates perpetual tension.

Xinjiang, I could see independence. If diplomacy goes well with the western neighbors, Xinjiang's role as a buffer state is no longer necessary, and a culturally distinct region like Xinjiang is costly to keep under control.

 

[Ray of Meep]

A hot take: North Korea and South Korea actually unify into Korea, and just like how CANZUK double dips into the AU and the CW for their interstellar expansion needs, this new united Korea double dips into the HFR and the AU.

 

[Acewing13]

I think that makes sense post-Zhongzhi, maybe some kind of demilitarization agreement that actually works. Might be the most optimistic thing in the setting.

 

[Ray of Meep]

Right, it'd be post-Zhongzhi. Think it might be one of the hidden concessions that Cao Guang (the entrepreneur from the Taiwan province) gave to the AU, that the two Koreas would be united again at some point. The mainland would have trouble keeping it under its complete domination anyways after their military was gutted, between Zhongzhi and Operation Heavy Chorus. There's still cynical politics going on, but I believe this arrangement would be ultimately beneficial to all parties involved.

 

[Ray of Meep]

I've been watching some modern military strategy videos, thinking about a diminished mainland China on Earth. Here's a map of said diminished China. It would have to rely heavily on AU support to rebuild as it rebuilds its government and military, turning its military into a small, lean force. Tibet, Uyghur, and Inner Mongolia would become independent buffer states. North Korea would reunite with South Korea after economic and political reform.

 

[Acewing13]

Well, if they're letting Tibet go, India would be happier, since they don't have China right on their border.

 

[Ray of Meep]

It'd be a tremendous loss for the URC, a major humiliation. Tibet is the source of the two major rivers that served as the lifeblood of the nation, now under foreign control. Still, it's a necessary sacrifice: by the time the URC was forming and democratizing, it simply did not have the leadership or military to maintain sovereignty over the plateaus.